Lives saved by social isolation

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The Covid-19 pandemic is accompanied by many rumors and little data, forming contradictory positions to successfully confront the crisis. One of the most alarming positions is that social isolation would be useless, because the number of new cases continues to increase. Another version of this position is that social isolation is only 30 percent (city in the interior of the state of São Paulo) and the number of new daily cases is stable or tending to decrease. Both perceptions are wrong. Social isolation does not immediately eliminate new cases, but it reduces the growth rate in the number of new cases. Without isolation we would have many more cases. Therefore, it is false to say that social isolation is useless because new cases appear. On the other hand, in certain situations, even small isolation can have noticeable effects. This is what all epidemiological simulations show. Therefore, it is false and reckless to say that it is not necessary to maintain or increase social isolation. The platform “Lives saved by social isolation”, organized by Prof. Paulo JS da Silva and researcher Sagastizábal from the Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Scientific Computing at Unicamp, demonstrate with mathematical simulations, based on available data, the importance of social isolation and the danger of its relaxation. The page, updated daily, shows the evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil as a whole, by regions and some most affected states.

http://www.ime.unicamp.br/~pjssilva/vidas_salvas.html

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Social isolation

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