Audio description: Color image of a drop of water projecting a plant in the background.

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The surprising extreme weather events

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On June 05, 2016, Campinas was surprised by an unprecedented extreme meteorological event. That month of June was the wettest in the history of the Cepagri Meteorological Station, whose records began in 1989. By the 05th, more than 100% of the total expected for the entire month had already been recorded (in terms of climatological average, June it is the third month of the year with the least rain). Much above average, this amount of rain alone can be considered an anomalous situation.

Adding to this, there were at least three extreme meteorological events in the region, one in Campinas, in the early hours of the 5th. Such events, totally atypical at any time of the year, especially in autumn, in tropical latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere , caused enormous damage, including loss of life.

The most appropriate tools for analyzing and predicting severe events are meteorological satellites and, mainly, radars. On the night of the 4th to the 5th, intense clouds were observed forming and approaching, with the potential for a severe storm. However, the limitation of image frequency and the distance from the existing radar did not allow forecasting and issuing of alerts in time, taking into account the limitations due to the rapid formation of the meteorological phenomenon.

In 2016, there were at least three extreme weather events in the Campinas region.
In 2016, there were at least three extreme weather events in the Campinas region

When it reached Campinas, it is estimated that the cloud contained approximately 300 tons of water and produced lightning every second. This severity can be associated with a tornado or a microexplosion, a process of formation of strong downdrafts that can generate winds of more than 100 km/hour. The tornado, a more severe phenomenon, produces rotating winds and air suction in its vortex. In the case of the Campinas event, the images and damage caused show a microexplosion pattern. If it were a tornado, they would be multiple, as different regions were hit without a defined trajectory joining these regions. Known as the most destructive forces of nature, multiple tornadoes are typically devastating.

However, this is not the most important issue, as the clouds had the potential for the formation of any of the aforementioned phenomena.

Fortunately, this severe weather event that surprised Campinas six years ago hit areas with solid and resistant buildings. The time of the microexplosion – approximately 12:30 am on Saturday morning – also avoided more serious consequences as there were few people on the move and schools and businesses were closed.

Microexplosion occurred during the early hours of the morning and hit more upscale areas of the city
Microexplosion occurred during the early hours of the morning and hit more upscale areas of the city

In the face of global climate change, with global warming, such events may become more intense and frequent. Furthermore, theThe challenges for so-called immediate forecasting are still enormous (or short term) in Brazil since it is a relatively new science and the country does not have a history of severe events. Even so, the Metropolitan Region of Campinas (RMC) has a history of meteorological phenomena with negative impacts on regional governance, with serious interference in productive networks and circulation of production and communication. It is worth noting that predicting severe events and their magnitude is one of the biggest challenges for atmospheric sciences anywhere in the world, especially in the tropics. Little is known about the processes inside the clouds that define the severity of the event.

In this sense, the Fapesp thematic project SOS Chuva (Severe Weather Observation and Forecast System) brought to light a recurring subject since the 1980s, the São Paulo Meteorology System (SIPMET) whose purpose is to organize institutions that work with Meteorology in the State of São Paulo into regional centers, since immediate forecasting must be carried out regionally. This is increasingly important given the increase in severe storms and their impacts on the population.

Taking as an example the extreme event in Campinas and others already registered with the RMC, together with the expertise of SOS Chuva, a proof of concept that in 2019 won o Péter Murányi Award - Science & Technology, is in construction of a project entitled Meteorology Center of the Metropolitan Region of Campinas (CRMet-RMC). Based at Cepagri, the Center will aim to organize an interdisciplinary laboratory for applications in various areas such as climate, agriculture, water resources, transport systems, the environment, among others, considering the current climate and future scenarios. The aim is to build in the RMC a culture of intense events common to the region and of unusual but existing severe events, with the aim that the perception of these phenomena and preventive and urgent action in response to them become integrated into the daily life of society. in its various segments, governance and disaster prevention.

*Ana Maria Heuminski de Avila is a researcher at the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research Applied to Agriculture (Cepagri) Unicamp

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