The Mexican elections, on July 1, 2018, should be the most important for Latin America in terms of their impact and political meanings for the geopolitical reconfiguration in the region. If the victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), center-left candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), Mexico will have made a historic choice that goes against the hegemony of right-wing candidates, such as the recent elections in Colombia, Chile and Peru. The electoral significance has multiple aspects to be observed and, consequently, analyzed in the context of internal and external policies.
López Obrador is contesting his third presidential election. In the two previous elections (2006 and 2012), AMLO contested the results. For his followers, AMLO was the victor and the corrupt Mexican electoral process, with fraud and manipulation, led to governments emerging without legitimacy in the last two terms. This year's electoral polls indicate a large majority for the leftist front candidate “Together we will make history”.
López Obrador's possible victory could mean the effective weakening of the PRI, Mexico's main party machine since the Revolution at the beginning of the 1928th century, which governed the country uninterruptedly from 2000, still under another nomenclature, until the year 2000. The right , by former presidents Vicente Fox (2006-2006) and Felipe Calderón (2012-XNUMX), from PAN, did not become the inevitable path of anti-PRI votes, as both represent the agenda of the free market and conservative groups.
The possibility of a center-left government raises expectations of facing serious historical problems common to other Latin American countries. The enormous social inequality, the insufficiency of public services such as education, health and transport, the explosion of violence, the constant economic crises that are reflected in indicators such as unemployment and low purchasing power of the population, in addition to the economic integration agendas in a context announced trade war led by the United States, are some of the challenges facing the next government official.
There are many analyzes disguised as fans that announce a catastrophe in López Obrador's government. Even without great details of the government program during the electoral campaign, his promises follow a recipe that foresees the leading role of public authorities, meeting the demands of social movements and understanding with market forces. During the electoral process, AMLO's opponents tried to associate him with the government of Nicolás Maduro and the prescription of a Venezuelan model for Mexico. The fact, as the candidate himself said, is that Mexico is not Venezuela, nor is AMLO Maduro.
Internal issues and Mexican “regeneration”
López Obrador's large advantage is the result of previous electoral campaigns, his experience as head of government of the Federal District, with high approval rates and, not least, the promise of regeneration. The term is quite ambiguous, but it explains the crisis of the main party organizations and the Mexicans' commitment to a new beginning.
Mexico was the protagonist of the first great revolution of the 1876th century. The revolution put an end to the personalist regime of Porfírio Díaz, who governed the country between 1911-XNUMX, and established progressive agendas, such as defined mandates and periodic elections, the protagonism of peasants and indigenous people who fought for a broad social agenda, from agrarian reform to recognition of communal properties. The slogan “Terra y Libertad” summarizes the spirit of a long, controversial revolutionary process that took root in Mexican society. The nationalism that emerged after the Revolution and the ways in which political and social life followed were in open dialogue with revolutionary legacies.
In 1968, when young people were massacred for protesting against the PRI government, on the eve of the Olympic Games, the population, considering previous criticisms, consolidated a reassessment of the Revolution. The urban and rural guerrillas that followed in the following decades, as well as more recent movements, such as the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN), from 1994 onwards, recovered revolutionary aspects such as the continuous mobilization of the population against free trade agreements with the USA and the defense of peasant interests. Other groups, such as teachers in Oaxaca, since 2006, and the 43 students from Ayotzinapa, who disappeared in 2014, indicate a picture of exasperation with the functioning of the Mexican State. The case of Ayotzinapa is an open wound that has stained the government and the old politics that murders those who rebel against it.
In this sense, “regeneration” is a speech against authoritarianism, impunity, the agenda of educational and economic technocrats and against corruption and subservience of the Mexican State to the interests of national oligarchic groups and their international ties. AMLO will have to face drug trafficking and the explosion of violence that marked the electoral campaign with more than 40 politicians murdered.
Negotiation skills will be put to the test in the initial moments of the possible MORENA government. The probable victory of a center-left candidate, aged 64, demonstrates that the discourse of neoliberal modernization, embodied in the management of Fox, the former Coca-Cola executive, or the PRI's rejuvenation bet, with Peña Nieto, they failed. The discredit of more traditional leaders and parties is leading the center-left to power in Mexico, making a political shift within a known model, without resorting to outsiders.
The strength of the party, recently created, lies in the figure of Andrés Manuel López Obrador himself. Opponents and analysts criticize the possibility of a government with personalistic characteristics, which is unusual in post-1911 Mexico. The candidate's stance in the electoral debates and in front of a new and small party sparked concern about the adoption of agendas that would come close to classic populism, based on charisma and the strength of presidential leadership. AMLO supporters argue that the broad base of social movements, religious groups, intellectuals and new political leaders will act as a safeguard against this personalist risk.
What changes for Latin America
The rapprochement with other Latin American countries must be intensified. Mexico, after the NAFTA agreement, focused its foreign policy on good relations with the United States and lost its leading role with countries to the south. Mexico saw Brazilian protagonism increase in South America and extend its influence in the region. However, since 2014, the Brazilian political crisis has meant that the country cannot sustain its status as regional leader. Brazil, in a scenario of uncertainty, even with elections, will take time to regain its position as a regional leader.
Another regional protagonist, Argentina, could fill Brazil's vacuum, but the economic crisis took Mauricio Macri's liberal government to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and reignited fears of a crisis like the one in 2001. Colombia is crawling in its internal agreements of peace and never exercised regional leadership. Chile did not demonstrate the political strength to lead the region.
The decline of leadership, on the left and right in other countries, will allow AMLO, depending on his initial actions, to establish himself as the new Latin American voice on the international stage. The situation favors the MORENA candidate due to Donald Trump's actions and his anti-immigrant rhetoric and, in particular, against Mexicans. Trump, in a veiled message, even said that in the Mexican election there were “not so good” candidates.
The anti-imperialist feeling, the handling of an identity that opposes the American model and the defense of the Latin American union are possible points and, to a certain extent, quite predictable. Mexicans have a history of strong cultural identity with other Latin American countries. Despite the discussions and complex approaches to the notion of miscegenation, references to a culture reminiscent of an indigenous past that remains present are fundamental to the construction of a discourse based on friendship, solidarity and cooperation.
In short, if the polls are confirmed, AMLO will not arrive at the National Palace for a single reason. Trump, PRI, Peña Nieto, violence, corruption and social and economic issues are some of his electoral campaigners. The candidate's ability and regeneration speech catapult hopes for the country and the continent. Along with expectations, there are fears about imprecise guidelines that will frustrate the population or lead to the emergence of a presidency with traditional characteristics and little innovation in political practices.
Perhaps Mexico can be free from bad omens and its social groups can be protagonists of new agendas and consider the demands of its people as a priority.
