What's to come?

What is the future scenario given JBS's accusations against Michel Temer and Aécio Neves, which could lead to the president's resignation and the arrest of the now-removed senator? This is the question that professors Reginaldo Moraes, Walquíria Leão Rêgo, Roberto Romano and Marcelo Ridenti, all from the Institute of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH) at Unicamp, seek to comment on, with the exception that they are hunches, given facts that are still too cloudy. 

Reginaldo Moraes, professor at the Department of Political Science

What can be predicted is that the Temer government is at a fatal crossroads, which it itself caused, because it became increasingly involved in trying to erase the traces of the dark operations it had carried out, and was creating even more traces. The most serious question that arises now is that for any other post-Temer solution, assuming that he actually falls, what will be left?

Constitutionally, there is the line of succession. The presidents of the Chamber and the Senate are equally in the crosshairs, very committed to having difficulty controlling their own future. The bomb would be left in the hands of the president of the STF, who is a person absolutely unprepared for anything, but that is what will be left if the line of succession is maintained. If it is not maintained, you have a political rupture, a heterodox solution outside the constitutional provisions, which could be a direct election.

The rise of the president of the STF would result in an indirect election later on. She would occupy Temer's seat to call for the indirect election of the new president, dragging it out until 2018. This would be the path, repeating 54, with the death of Getúlio. But this path is also extremely delicate. It would have to, in a certain way, contain demonstrations for direct elections, it would have to call for police and military repression to contain the pressure.

The scenario is very delicate. Apparently, Organizações Globo took the lead: I don't know if they had the trick up their sleeve, but probably, from now on, that's what they have. They will probably try to work for her. Direct election is the last thing they want at the moment, especially with the dismantling of conservative leaders, aligned with Globo and who are all looking very bad in the picture.

Those who are falling from grace will not be silent goats. No one is going to arrest Aécio, because now Aécio falls, but also Cunha's allowance and all the protection he had thanks to that agreement. Cunha's accusations and scams. No stone is left unturned. This means even in the short term that God will help us not only from the government side, but from its allied base. I think everyone in Congress is looking for a place to hide. All that will be left are ideologized political forces that exist as a de facto political current and not as a party for hire. Those who have this type of composition are the ultra-right and the ultra-left. There will be more polarization. The scenario is dismantled, very worrying.

Walquíria Leão Rêgo, professor at the Department of Sociology

It seems to me that there is a conflict between the Attorney General's Office, some Supreme Court ministers and some political forces; that this fight was somewhat predicted, with the cracks in the coup forces themselves that attacked Brazilian democracy, against the more egalitarian project of the PT governments. On the other hand, this crisis shows the degradation of institutions, a very serious crisis especially involving the Brazilian Judiciary, which is showing great immorality.

I think their big project is not to allow the elections to take place in 2018 because, to allow them, they would have to find something to prevent Lula's candidacy, which is already very strong. There's no way to know, nor are they understanding each other. Why does Globo, which always attacks Lula, suddenly seem to be doing it differently? I can't understand what's happening. I think we can imagine several possible scenarios, including a coup even further to the right than it already was.

I have noticed that popular forces are organizing themselves and there is a very large following. Just see what it was like in Curitiba during Lula's testimony, although Globo hid it. This war of appropriating information and not transmitting it to the people is an inexplicable terror. The demonstrations of support for Lula in Curitiba were a demonstration that his candidacy is popular and very strong. People know that Lula is not a thief. There isn't even a single proof. But this is part of very well-known techniques that the Nazis used, keeping the person as a suspect at all times.

Someone said that Lula met with him, as if a president of the republic could not meet with anyone. Speeches like these don't reach anyone, except a middle class that has a lot of hate. How are they going to do it now? Are they going to condemn Lula for an apartment that they know isn't his? Judge Moro and his gang stayed out of this operation, that's also strange. This operation that caught Aécio and Temer was carried out without Lava Jato. Everything indicates that the coup judiciary itself is cracked.

I think this is the coup: indirect election, suspending the elections and avoiding Lula. They have no commitment to democracy. Now it will depend a lot on the popular capacity to react, but I think the coup is even more to the right and repression is coming. Even the unexpected can happen. It's very strange, to say the least.

Roberto Romano, professor at the Department of Philosophy

In a first scenario, we could have the Temer government deepening the purchase of the Legislature and threatening the Judiciary. This is a terrible scenario, but it is good to remember that he has already done this to achieve reforms, distributing funds, forgiving debts of states and municipalities and distributing positions, in other words, Temer has deepened corruption. This situation tends to get worse, as we know. The price of corruption increases according to the danger the head of the Executive is in.

This happened to all former presidents and, in the case of Temer, this is aggravated by his origin, as he was not elected to the position. The so-called allied base is, in fact, the offensive base. Each time Temer has to pay for his stay – and no longer for reforms –, legal instability in the country will increase. It is not even possible to talk about another component here – workers are being thrown into absolute legal uncertainty.

In a second scenario, the TSE, alerted by this very serious fact [the allegations by the JBS owners], revokes the Dilma-Temer ticket. As Temer had recently appointed two ministers to the TSE, it was expected that he would have a majority to escape impeachment. It would, without a doubt, be the least traumatic decision if the TSE opts for revocation, after all it is a decision taken by the Court.

In a third scenario, in the case of an indirect election by Congress, the solution would be more traumatic because we would have countless politicians hostage to Lava Jato. You end up electing a president of the Republic chosen by suspicious politicians.

Finally, there is the possibility of Temer's resignation – I think impeachment is the least likely of the hypotheses, since the manipulation of the allied base, almost all of which has been bought, far exceeds the opposition's ability to mobilize. Furthermore, an impeachment process would take a lot of time, much longer than that of President Dilma.

These four possibilities, in my point of view, accentuate the instability of the government, the economy and the lives of Brazilian workers.

Marcelo Ridenti, professor at the Department of Sociology

[About the future scenario]. I can make a guess, because no one knows. First we need to see what Temer's fate will be. He may want to resign, but I don't believe he will do that, because it doesn't fit him and, later, because he will be unprotected in terms of a privileged forum for a trial. I think he will try to resist as much as he can, which could lead to impeachment proceedings. But this impeachment process would be complicated because Temer has very strong support in the National Congress.

Another possibility that they may take up is that process that already has a contrary opinion from the Superior Electoral Court, to nullify their victory and that of Dilma. If the crisis gets much worse, this ticket may end up being revoked. If this happens, the norm is indirect election, and there is no clear legislation on how to do it in this context. The legislation says that Congress votes, but it does not say who can be voted on, who the candidates would be: whether it would be a member of Congress, whether it could be an outsider. So, everything is very much up in the air, no one knows what could happen.

And, certainly, businesspeople and people who take care of the economy are very worried, because they were supporting Temer's reforms. It becomes more difficult to vote on all of this. We are still very close to this complaint, although there will be other complaints to come. There are more people reporting, not everything is clear. The scenario is that new bombs will come from this complicity between the business community and the government.

If Temer leaves, what is determined is an indirect election, unless the Chamber and the Senate, together, enact a law determining direct elections. Yesterday even Caiado [Ronaldo] seems to have spoken for direct elections. I doubt they will do that, they will probably let Temer pay alone, he and the nearest leadership. They will keep pushing with their belly, quite possibly until the next election.

Perhaps the dominant forces of the economy will put a lot of pressure, regardless of the crisis, to approve the reforms they are drafting, especially the labor reform, which is well underway, and the Social Security reform. It remains to be seen whether there will be a political climate in Congress to approve all of this, with this government crisis. Maybe it's difficult.

I think they're all a bit surprised, because there's plenty for everyone, there are only a few who escape. For example, no one has commented on [Rodrigo Rocha] Loures, the deputy to whom the President of the Republic sent to carry out negotiations [in Congress], where was he when the news broke? In NY. And with whom? With seo [João] Dória.