In the assessment of three IE-Unicamp professors, accusations undermine reforms defended by the government
The scandal triggered by the plea bargain of the directors of the JBS Group not only made the current federal government unviable, but also led to the burial of the labor and pension reform proposals defended by the Palácio do Planalto. This is, in general terms, the assessment of three teachers interviewed by the Journal of Unicamp, all from the University's Institute of Economics (IE). According to Claudio Dedecca, Pedro Linhares Rossi and Eduardo Fagnani, the government, which already had high levels of unpopularity, completely lost the legitimacy to conduct the two processes after the revelation of the content of the accusations made by the brothers Joesley and Wesley Batista. Check out, below, the main excerpts of the analyzes carried out by the trio of intellectuals.
Claudio Dedecca, professor at the Institute of Economics (IE) at Unicamp
The reforms died under this government. Everything indicates, although it is not yet possible to make a categorical statement, that the government has foundered. Not only the government, but also Congress finds itself in a very fragile situation. This government's guidelines are practically dead. There is a clear movement on the part of different sectors of society calling for President Michel Temer to resign. The situation is so dramatic that even if the president resigns, it will probably be necessary to form a political agreement to try to regain the country's political and economic stability. An agreement that calms the market, but goes further and breaks the polarization in which Brazil finds itself. Until this situation becomes clear, reforms will remain off the agenda.
Even if the president decides to resign, this agenda will be blocked because Congress has neither the climate nor the capacity to conduct the reform processes. Until a few hours before the scandal came to light, the government still needed many votes to guarantee approval of the reforms. The expectation now is what the path will be towards choosing a possible new government.
My analysis is that the storm is so strong that the country will need a broad political agreement. In this hypothesis, leaders like Lula and FHC would most likely be called upon to mediate this process. Once this is done, the debate on reforms will depend greatly on the basis of this agreement and who may be elected, whether directly or indirectly. My impression is that reforms will only return to the agenda, at best, next year. At this first stage, all efforts will be aimed at stabilizing politics and the economy and reestablishing governability.
Pedro Linhares Rossi, professor at the Institute of Economics (IE) at Unicamp
The government ended and discussions on labor and pension reform proposals, which were linked to this government, ended. Proposals, it must be said, were forwarded and debated in an undemocratic way, like the very nature of this government. The reform proposals were part of the context of an illegitimate government. Unpopular and undemocratic proposals, because they have not undergone any democratic debate. They were imposed from the top down. The correct thing now is to place these proposals in the context of an electoral election, for the population to choose.
What will happen, however, we don't know. It is possible that this process will continue in an undemocratic and authoritarian way, but this would generate even more institutional and political chaos in Brazil. The fact is that it is not acceptable for an illegitimate government and an illegitimate Congress to conduct reforms that break with the social pact signed in 1988. The best thing at this moment is to have direct elections for president and Congress, in which issues that alter the social pact and affect people's lives and pass through the scrutiny of society.
Eduardo Fagnani, professor at the Institute of Economics (IE) at Unicamp
I think discussions on reforms are over. Proposals of this order require a democratic debate, which was not occurring. This new scandal brings the following message: don't play with democracy, as it is very dangerous! They staged a coup to implement a radical project, which they had been trying to establish for over 30 years. This government installed itself in power without any political legitimacy, without obtaining votes at the polls. He implemented a project that did not pass popular scrutiny. Now, it has been stripped bare due to its lack of ethical and moral legitimacy.
Democracy has flaws, but it has a great virtue, that of defining the rules of the game. Without democracy, there are no rules. Let us be careful, because it is possible that they will try to carry out a scam within a scam. This is a central question. I find it very strange that these facts are coming to light now, in a combination of leaks by the Public Ministry and Federal Police and with Globo highlighting them.
In any case, society is asking for direct elections, which in my opinion is the only possible way out of the current situation. We need a government legitimized by popular vote. In this hypothesis, a decent center-left candidate would simply veto the labor and pension reform proposals and open a broad debate to calmly discuss the essential measures for the country.
