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Scientists warn of risk of mass extinction of species

Document points out that growing consumption in most countries is among the causes of transformations

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PlaybackThe intensification of degradation of the Earth's surface as a result of human activities threatens the quality of life of 2/5 of the planet's population, and could cause the extinction of species, intensifying climate change. It is also one of the main vectors for mass human migration and increased conflict. These are the main conclusions of the Diagnosis on Land Degradation and Restoration, approved during the Sixth Plenary of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), held in Medellín, Colombia. The document is the result of studies that brought together more than 100 experts from around 45 countries over three years.

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UN experts warn that, by 2050, climate and soil degradation could reduce crop productivity by 10%

Land degradation can take many forms, such as land abandonment, declining wildlife populations, deforestation, loss of soil and soil health, loss of pasture and fresh water, among many others. “Transforming natural ecosystems into human-driven production ecosystems – for example, agriculture or managed forests – creates benefits for society, but simultaneously results in losses of biodiversity and deprioritized ecosystem services. Value and balance these trade-offs it is a challenge for society as a whole”, explains Carlos Joly, professor at the Institute of Biology (IB) at Unicamp and member of the Multidisciplinary Panel of Experts at IPBES.

“The degradation of land resources weakens our efforts to end hunger. Managing land resources is critical to ensuring our vision of sustainable food and agriculture. Healthy soil is the backbone of the entire healthy food system” comments José Graziano da Silva, director general of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), about the results of the Diagnosis.

High consumption in most developed countries and growing consumption in emerging and developing economies are important vectors that bring about these transformations. Population growth can lead to unsustainable expansion of agriculture and uncontrolled increases in mining extraction and urban growth.

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The Sixth IPBES Plenary brought together around 750 participants in Medellín, Colombia

According to experts, if current development models are followed by 2050, soil degradation associated with climate change will reduce crop productivity by an average of 10% globally and up to 50% in certain regions. At the same time, populations living in drylands will increase from 2,7 billion in 2010 to 4 billion in 2050.

“By then, it is likely that land degradation and problems related to climate change could force the migration of 50 million to 700 million people. Decreased land productivity also makes societies more vulnerable to social instability – particularly in arid regions, where years with extremely low rainfall have been associated with up to a 45% increase in violent conflicts,” explains South African Robert Scholes, diagnostic leader next to the scientist Italian Luca Montanarella.

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Robert Scholes (left) and Luca Montanarella, coordinators of the study that involved more than one hundred scientists from around the world

To give you an idea of ​​the extent of degradation, in 2014, less than 25% of the planet's surface was spared substantial impacts from human activities. In 2050, IPBES experts estimate it to be just 10%.

"With negative impacts on the well-being of at least 3,2 billion people, the degradation of the Earth's surface through human activities is leading the planet towards the sixth mass extinction of species" states Scholes, and adds: “avoid, reducing and reversing this problem and restoring degraded land are urgent prioritiess to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services vital to all life on Earth and ensure human well-being.”

Another impact observed was in floodable areas. According to Montanarella, "we have seen 87% losses in wetlands since the beginning of the modern era – with 54% lost since 1900."

The causes of this scenario, according to the Diagnosis, were the rapid expansion and inadequate management of agriculture and livestock, which cause losses in biodiversity and ecosystem services, encompassing the essential contributions of nature to people, such as food security, purification of water, energy supply, among others.

Currently, agriculture and livestock cover more than 1/3 of the Earth's surface. If current standards of conventional agriculture are maintained, the The use of pesticides and fertilizers is expected to double by 2050, according to IPBES experts, which could potentially make soil health unviable.

The diagnosis found that land degradation is one of the main drivers of climate change, with deforestation contributing around 10% of all human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Another major trigger of climate change has been the release of carbon previously stored in the soil, with land degradation between 2000 and 2009 responsible for annual global emissions of up to 4,4 billion tonnes of CO2.

In Brazil, adEgradation is present in all biomes and regions, but it is more intense in areas where human occupation is older, such as the Atlantic Forest. Brazil has 200 million hectares of degraded areas according to data from the Forestry Department of the Ministry of the Environment (MMA). According to researcher Moacyr Bernardino Dias-Filho, from Embrapa, degradation tends to be greater in places where livestock farming has shown the highest expansion rates, that is, in agricultural frontier areas – see here.

For experts, The impact on land degradation is often not visible due to the distances that can separate consumers and producers. The growing spatial disconnection between consumers and the ecosystems that produce the food and other products they depend on has resulted in a growing lack of awareness and understanding of the implications of consumer choices. Thus, those who benefit from the overexploitation of natural resources are among those least affected by the direct negative impacts of land degradation and therefore have the least incentive to act.

“We live in an increasingly connected world, but as consumers, we are living further and further from the lands that sustain us. Addressing land degradation place by place is insufficient when consumption in one part of the world influences the land and people in another” he comments Monique Barbut, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

High consumption lifestyles in more developed economies, combined with increased consumption in emerging and developing economies, are the dominant factors driving land degradation globally.


Can we reverse it?

The study authors suggest a set of actions at individual, sectoral and governmental levels that would help to reverse this predatory trajectory, including increasing yields on existing agricultural land, changes to diets with less animal protein and unsustainable origins, as well as reductions in food loss and waste.

In urban areas, scientists recommend including replanting with native species, development of “green infrastructure” such as parks and rivers, remediation of contaminated and sealed soils (e.g. with asphalt), wastewater treatment and restoration of river channels. are identified as action options.

 According to experts, another option is to integrate the agricultural, forestry, energy, water, infrastructure and service agendas and consider the development of policies between different ministries to simultaneously encourage more sustainable practices in the production and consumption of commodities land-based initiatives, eliminate “perverse incentives” that promote land degradation, and promote positive incentives that reward sustainable land management.

Restoration appears to be a good remediation option. Although often expensive, the benefits of restoring degraded lands are still 10 times greater than not doing it. This calculation was estimated in nine biomes. Among the benefits arising from the restoration, scientists listed increased employment, private sector investment, improved livelihoods, education and the promotion of gender equity.

The report notes that successful examples of land restoration are found in all ecosystems and that many well-tested practices and techniques, both traditional and modern, can prevent or reverse degradation.

As a successful example of restoration in Brazil, the Tijuca Forest, in Rio de Janeiro, is considered emblematic. “The restoration was ordered by D. Pedro II on the recommendation of Councilor José Bonifácio Andrada e Silva, to recover and protect the springs that supplied the city of Rio de Janeiro. Very few tourists who visit Tijuca National Park know that they are walking in a restored area”, explains Joly.

In addition to this case, there is the example of Pact for the Restoration of the Atlantic Forest, which operates across the entire biome in the country and has already recovered more than 86 thousand hectares of Atlantic Forest since 2007.

“Land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate change are three different faces of the same central challenge: the increasingly dangerous impact of our choices on the health of our natural environment. We cannot afford to face any of these three threats in isolation – each of them deserves the highest political priority and must be addressed together”, highlights IPBES president, chemist Sir Robert Watson.

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Chemist Robert Watson, president of IPBES

America accounts for 1/4 of the global ecological footprint

At the same IPBES Plenary in Medellín, four more Regional Diagnoses were also approved: Africa, Europe and Central Asia, and Asia and the Pacific. Together, the reports brought together more than 550 experts from around 100 countries.

The document highlights that the American continent represents 13% of the world's population and accounts for almost 1/4 of the population's consumption pressure on natural resources, the so-called ecological footprint.

The economic value of nature in the Americas was estimated at at least US$24,3 trillion per year, approximately R$80 trillion, without considering the marine environment. This is equivalent to the continent's total GDP. These environmental values ​​are invisible in the pricing of food production, water supply, energy generation, and even the contribution to human health. When these values ​​are not taken into account in the current model of development and lifestyle, it means following a path that will bring irreversible consequences for the planet and human existence.

To give you an idea, between the arrival of Europeans in America and today, an average reduction of 30% in species populations per hectare was calculated. The main causes are pollution, overexploitation of natural resources and the conversion of natural areas into areas whose original characteristics have been altered. It is estimated that 65% of ecosystem services from which people benefit are declining.

If the scenario does not change, by 2050 climate change will become the main vector of pressure, negatively impacting biodiversity in the Americas. It is estimated that the average reduction in species populations per hectare could reach 40% by the middle of the XNUMXst century.

The Diagnosis of the Americas was coordinated by researchers Jake Rice (Canada), Cristiana Simão Seixas. (Brazil, Unicamp and BPBES) and Maria Elena Zaccagnini (Argentina). The participation of the team of Brazilian researchers in the Diagnosis of the Americas stood out with 24 specialists from different areas and regions of the country. These researchers came together to set up the Brazilian version of the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Platform, the BPBES, inspired by IPBES.

A IPBES extension is an independent intergovernmental body linked to the UN and created in 2012. It is made up of 129 member governments and aims to provide policymakers with diagnoses on the state of knowledge about biodiversity, ecosystems and nature's contributions to people. It is also called "IPCC of biodiversity".

 

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Audio description: Panoramic image of an area in an open field, horizontally, with an area of ​​very dry land appearing in the foreground, with the soil showing several cracks, and immediately behind an area with low vegetation, and in the background a forest with taller trees . It's sunny and the sky is blue. Image 1 of 1.

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