Unicamp, UFMG, UERJ and UnB launch the 'Election Observatory'

Those who see Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's candidacy as unlikely certainly wonder how many votes the leader in the polls, despite being in prison, will be able to transfer to Fernando Haddad, the likely PT candidate. Analysis of this and other aspects of electoral disputes for the presidency, state governments and legislatures are available on the website of 2018 Election Observatory, in a direct style and language accessible to the general public. O website, powered by professors, researchers and students from Unicamp, UFMG, UERJ, UnB and other study centers, goes live at the moment the electoral campaign begins, with propaganda, motorcades and rallies released since the 16th, and free time on radio and television from August 31st.

The 2018 Election Observatory is an initiative within the scope of the INCT (National Institute of Science and Technology) program “Democracy and Democratization of Communication”, financed by CNPq and coordinated by UFMG. The work is developed around five main axes: Public Opinion and Elections, Online Elections and Society, Legislature and Governance, Judiciary and Electoral Process, and Media and Elections. Unicamp participates in the project through the Center for Public Opinion Studies (Cesop), the Coordination of Interdisciplinary Research Centers and Nuclei (Cocen) at Unicamp, responsible for the Public Opinion and Elections section, where articles and electoral maps from others are already available. claims, search histories and videos.

“This INCT aims to assess the state of democracy in Brazil and the implications in terms of representation, parties and political participation. We decided to create the 2018 Election Observatory due to the very unique situation of these elections”, says professor Oswaldo Martins Estanislau do Amaral, director of Cesop and coordinator of the Unicamp section. “The idea is to produce solid analyzes from a scientific point of view, but at the same time in a simple and didactic way, in order to contribute to the public debate. At the same time as it is a project to monitor the elections, it is also a project to disseminate knowledge in political science produced in universities.”

Regarding the question posed at the beginning, Oswaldo Amaral informs that an analysis on party identification and vote choice has been published, precisely to discuss the ability or otherwise of former president Lula to transfer votes to the current candidate for vice president Fernando Haddad. “In research carried out by Cesop, we identified that, historically, 20% of the Brazilian electorate declare themselves to be PT supporters; and that, of these, 80% tend to vote for the party's candidates. In other words, even if the candidate is not Lula, there is a potential growth for Haddad (or any other name indicated by the former president) of at least 15%, 16% – which would be equivalent to 80% of the 20% of supporters. ”

According to Amaral, the analyzes in the Public Opinion and Elections section focus on pre-campaign and upcoming electoral polls, feeding a database with electoral maps dating back to 1989 – the analyzes extend to the state level. The section also presents the voter profile of each of the main candidates based on opinion polls and videos with professors from Unicamp and other universities in São Paulo discussing possible coalitions in the next government; one of the videos deals with the effect of the Bolsa Família program on this year's elections. 

The Cesop coordinator highlights, for example, a text about the profile of undecided voters, noting that despite the apparently more troubled scenario, the number of voters still without a defined vote remains unstable in relation to previous elections. “The uniqueness of this moment is that the campaign starts later, with candidates having just 40 days to win over the undecided voters. In another analysis, related to the databases, it is seen that the elections have been reconfigured in recent years, with PT candidates receiving better votes in the North and Northeast, and those from the PSDB (especially in the second round) concentrating their votes in the South Center."

A surprising fact for the researchers themselves, admits the Unicamp professor, is that 53% of voters do not trust the counting of votes in Brazil. “It is surprising, firstly, because the number is much higher than imagined and well distributed among all social groups. A difference is that people who prefer democracy, in relation to any other form of government, tend to trust the investigation more. There is still a variation by region, which we cannot explain, but distrust is widespread, regardless of income, education, sex or age.”

Unpredictable

Urged to give his own opinion on the 2018 electoral framework, the Cesop coordinator notes that the number of candidates is decreasing, which demonstrates that the political system has its defense mechanisms. “We had a very volatile situation, with a large number of politicians claiming to be candidates, when we know that no one has a chance in the race if they don't have support. This makes the parties try to accommodate themselves, also taking into account the political articulation for the regional elections. We no longer have that extremely fragmented scenario.”

An exception, in the researcher's view, would be candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who apparently has a hard core of voters and does not have strong alliances. “But, in general, what we see are parties and candidates seeking alliances, that is, that feeling that we would have a completely different and new political scenario, is not justified, especially in legislative elections. The campaign financing structure itself, in the hands of the parties, tends to favor traditional and experienced politicians. I don't believe in renewal. To do this, you need to have someone different to vote for, when it is the parties that choose the candidates and give campaign money.”

Returning to the Lula case, Oswaldo Amaral considers that the context makes it difficult to predict the outcome. “Lula has great popular support, largely linked to the memory of his government. If he is prevented from running, I think he will transfer a significant amount of votes to whoever he nominates. This transfer would be enough for Fernando Haddad to fight to go to the second round, which depends on the growth of Geraldo Alckmin – whose main asset is TV time – and also on other factors. Bolsonaro in the second round is also possible, due to the fragmentation of votes in the first round, but it is difficult for him to win the second round, as he has a high rejection rate, especially among women.”

Another actor that makes any prediction risky, adds the IFCH professor, is the Judiciary, which in his opinion has been making surprising decisions. “Judges are presenting contradictory decisions regarding the interpretation of legislation, including due to internal disputes within the Judiciary, sometimes interfering in the political process itself by taking on a role that would belong to the National Congress. This is making the electoral game even more unpredictable.”