According to research that included the participation of Unicamp, actions in this sense would be beneficial even if the phenomenon does not materialize
Research carried out in Brazil and abroad points to the possibility of extreme climate changes subjecting the Amazon Forest to a savannization process [forest dieback, in English]. In this scenario, the ecosystem as it is currently known would give way to thin fields and sparse trees, a landscape similar to that found in African savannas or the Brazilian Cerrado. This hypothesis, formulated 20 years ago and which indicates the loss of the largest tropical forest in the world, should be leaving the governments of the nine Amazonian countries “hair standing on end”. However, scientists still have several uncertainties about this projection. Given these doubts, what is the best thing to do: wait, adopt mitigating measures or establish adaptation actions for the region's population (30 million people) that would be environmentally and socially beneficial, even if the prediction does not come true? The answer to these questions can be found in an article that has just been published by PNAS, scientific journal edited by the National Academy of Sciences of the United States.
The first author of the work is ecologist David Montenegro Lapola, researcher at the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research Applied to Agriculture (Cepagri) at Unicamp. In addition to him, 11 other Brazilian and foreign scientists signed the article, which reviews the studies published around the hypothesis of savannization of the Amazon Forest. “As there are many uncertainties surrounding this possibility, we sought to answer an objective question: what to do in the face of this risk? We analyzed three alternatives and estimated the socioeconomic costs related to each of them”, explains Lapola.
According to the researcher, the most feasible alternative is the adoption of adaptive actions that can bring environmental and social benefits to the Amazon region, even if the forest savannization process does not occur. “We identified 20 measures that would be important in this regard, at an estimated cost of US$122 billion. These include the use of cultivars that are more resistant to drought, encouraging domestic energy production through the use of solar panels and expanding afforestation in urban areas. We also indicate the need to eliminate open sewage, as a way to reduce the proliferation of diseases, and the creation of the Amazonas Hydrographic Basin Committee, which would be responsible for managing the region's water resources”, says Lapola.
All these measures, points out the Cepagri-Unicamp researcher, would bring immediate gains and would continue to be important if the Amazon savannization process is confirmed. One option for the adaptation strategy, according to the ecologist, would be the adoption of mitigating measures. Among them is the reversal of global climate change underway on the planet – cause of the possible savannization of the Amazon –, which would be a much more complex process and would require a global effort, and not just from the nine Amazonian countries. “According to our projections, the cost of a project of this scale would be around US$64,2 billion. This would involve ending deforestation and recovering the 17% or 18% of the forest that has already been degraded,” he says.
However, the scientist continues, this would not be enough to ensure the forest's resilience to climate change. “It is not enough to stop deforestation and recover what has already been degraded. If other countries, especially the great world powers, continue to emit greenhouse gases at current levels, the forest will continue to be exposed to the risk of collapse,” he ponders. The worst of the alternatives, according to the study published by PNAS, it would be to do nothing and wait to see what happens. In this case, 30 years after the savannization took place, the losses would reach the figure of US$ 957 billion to US$ 3,5 trillion.
Remaining impassive in the face of such projections, reinforces Lapola, would be the worst decision. “It is worth remembering that these scenarios were designed based on episodes of drought that have occurred in the Amazon over the last few years, a situation that will become frequent in the event of savannization. In other words, our analyzes are supported by abundantly documented evidence, such as the droughts of 2005, 2010 and 2016,” he says. Lapola also notes that the fact that the article about the study was published at this time of political transition in Brazil was not intentional.
He considers, however, that the result of the work provides important data for society and the future government at the federal level to reflect on environmental issues, which bring both social and economic impacts to the country. “Brazil needs to decide which path it wants to adopt in relation to this problem. The Amazon is the world's greatest biological treasure and we are at serious risk of losing it - through climate change or clear-cutting - before we have learned to use this treasure in a sustainable way to our advantage. The study provides solid foundations to help guide decision-making”, analyzes Lapola.
Much of the data that supported the study was produced by AmazonFace, a program financed by the Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovations and Communications (MCTIC), Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Amazonas State Research Support Foundation (Fapeam) and Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (Capes). The Cepagri-Unicamp researcher is the president of the program's Scientific Committee, which investigates the impacts of climate change on the future of the Amazon Forest.
Among the scientists' missions is to predict whether, despite the tendency to increase the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO²) in the atmosphere and the possible worsening of climate change, the forest will be capable of proving resilient or not, that is, of resisting to these adverse situations, remaining productive and without significant loss of biomass and biodiversity.
