Greater frequency of severe events, such as intense rains and floods, signal the need to review development models
“Everything is related”: floods, fires, heat waves, record temperatures and the increase in extreme events. This is what Professor Ana Maria Heuminski de Ávila, from the Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture (Cepagri) at Unicamp, reflects. For the researcher, this summer is didactic as it demonstrates the need to pay attention to the possibility that intense events, such as the heavy rains and floods that have been occurring in the state of São Paulo, become increasingly more frequent and, thus, will cause part of a new climate normality.
“Climate change is nothing more than these events that we have seen becoming more frequent and within a normal condition. We have noticed that in recent years, especially after the 2000s, there is a greater frequency of these intense events, which are those that move away from the average of what is our reference”, observes Ana. There is a warming of the atmosphere and, as a result, a greater potential for moisture retention, which causes clouds to become more intense and precipitation to be heavier. “It's like a sponge with the potential to retain water and when that water falls, it falls all at once. Then we have the most intense rains and longest droughts”, she points out.
Extreme events have always existed, but what the scientific community has shown is that greater regularity is closely related to human action. In recent months, recent floods in the states of Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have killed at least 70 people and left tens of thousands homeless or homeless. Mozambique, the United Kingdom, the United States, Indonesia and India faced similar events, also demonstrating that there is a global scope of the phenomena. In Australia, a devastating fire season was also followed by serious flooding. Temperatures worldwide broke records in 2019, including in Antarctica, which led the secretary of the United Nations, in putterance recent, stating: "our planet is burning".
The severity of the events raises a warning about the consequences related to human action and its consequences regarding climate change, global warming and disasters. Professor Lúcia da Costa Ferreira, coordinator of the Doctorate in Environment and Society at the Center for Environmental Studies and Research (Nepam/IFCH) at Unicamp, explains that climate change is not a new phenomenon. They have always occurred, with geological eras changing planet Earth's climate over time. However, the Anthropocene era, in which we currently live, designates a period in which human action takes precedence over the forces of nature. “What is important when talking about climate change today is that there is practically a consensus that these changes are being caused by human action, and no longer by geological, cosmic factors, etc. Human action has caused a very rapid change in the planet's temperature, which can cause changes that are important for humans and all other species,” she says.
Climate enemies
Numerous studies, points out Lúcia, demonstrate that man's actions are causing a sudden and profound change in the planet's climate, especially after the Industrial Revolution, which began in the 18th century, which increased the emission of greenhouse gases on the planet. “The main vectors are the unrestrained consumption of fossil materials. We use oil in many things, but fossil fuels have been the main responsible for climate change and that is why there are many people who deny this, because there is an entire production chain that was produced around oil and that would be affected if at some point there was a change in habits and behaviors”, he analyzes. The professor also cites the use of coal to generate heat, in cold countries, as another element of negative impact. “All of this is on the list of climate enemies,” she notes.
The denialism of sectors of society and governments, such as that of Donald Trump in the United States, and that of Jair Bolsonaro, in Brazil, is also assessed as harmful by the researcher. “The current Brazilian government continues this policy of denying climate change, investing heavily in a predatory developmental policy. The fires that are happening in the Amazon with the approval of the federal government and the erosion of environmental legislation are terrible for climate change. Brazil had a leading position in the world and was highly respected for several achievements in favor of controlling climate change and today it is on the fringes of countries that are considered enemies of controlling climate change”, highlights Lúcia.
The fires in the Amazon in 2019, recalled by the teacher, destroyed 72 thousand km² of the forest, according to data from the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe). One in every three fires occurred in deforested areas, according to a survey by WWF-Brazil, suggesting that the practice is partly related to the agricultural use of land. The impacts of forest loss, in addition to directly affecting the region's biome, interfere with the climate of all of South America, including the rainfall regime, as Professor Ana explains. “Forest conservation plays a role in rainfall. Our climatology is related to the forest. In São Paulo, for example, the climate is completely linked to the Amazon rainforest.”
The researcher recalls that pioneering studies on the Amazon, by scientist Carlos Nobre, warn of the possibility of the biome becoming a savanna if deforestation exceeds 25% of the area. Today, it is estimated that 20% have already been deforested. “This has implications for the climate and has a domino effect. The north is a humid region with forest. If you remove the forest, it reduces rain for us in the summer. And where does this rain go? Will it be distributed throughout the year, will it be scarcer? All these questions intersect.” Studies on the Campinas region, in which she participated, for example, show that spring, until the 2000s, used to have rain. Today, it is a dry season and already with heat waves. In winter, frost practically no longer occurs.
Ana points out that the way agriculture was expanded, especially since the 1970s, also needs to be reviewed, as it is related to climate change and affects the destruction of riparian forests. The maintenance of rivers and springs is thus compromised and, consequently, the hydrological cycle becomes incomplete. “All of this is linked to the climate issue”, she assesses, including the use of agrochemicals that pollute the water.
Furthermore, according to the professor, climate change harms farmers' own production, with crop losses. “If certain meteorological events occur at an unexpected time, they cause a huge economic disruption”, he emphasizes. A study carried out by Cepagri also showed that the zoning of crops is changing. “The results of the research were frightening. Some crops will no longer produce in areas where they used to produce with potential,” she states.
Another important element in the worsening of extreme events, highlighted by professors Ana and Lúcia, is rampant and poorly structured urbanization. “How many kilometers do we walk in a completely paved city, without adequate park facilities? There is a disorganized way in which people were organizing themselves”, says Ana, citing the example of São Paulo.
Lúcia indicates that one of the main problems of the urbanization project in São Paulo is the “packing of rivers”. “The city of São Paulo is a city built in a region rich in rivers. It is absurd that the city has packaged these rivers, placed everything underground with a rainwater drainage channel system through rainwater pipes. These pipes have a lot of power and can withstand a lot of rain. More than that, not only will they be destroyed but the water will overflow.” “Easy and friendly” systems, he assesses, such as rain-permeable cities, need to be developed to mitigate the effects of extreme events.
Broad consequences and urgent actions
The dimensions of the consequences of climate change occur in different areas, interfering in the lives of all species, changing the conditions of the life cycle, impacting food production, increasing ocean levels and bringing greater risks of floods and periods of dry. The water crisis in São Paulo, in 2014, and the recent episodes of flooding are illustrative of this imbalance. Just like the fires and floods in Australia.
Until recently, Brazil did not have seasons of extreme phenomena, as Ana recalls. However, they are becoming part of reality in the country. Therefore, she believes that it is necessary to invest in monitoring systems, integrated with Civil Defense and communication systems, so that they can act effectively when a disaster occurs. The state of Santa Catarina, she notes, is the best prepared in terms of Brazil, since the occurrence of Hurricane Catarina, in 2004, triggered the need for a more sophisticated system.
Professor Lúcia also states that there is technology and science for this purpose. Furthermore, there are resources that often remain idle, as observed in the case of the city of São Paulo. “We know that our scientists have the will, there is scientific and technological capacity. But beyond money, beyond cooperation, political will is needed on all scales. We need to have well-trained people, laboratories, places for these people to meet and have an integrated action system between multiple actors and at multiple levels, to function at the time of an extreme event.”
But so that these events do not become, in fact, the new normality, it is not enough to operate only when they occur. It is necessary to review development models towards sustainability. “It is a shame that Brazil is now, from a government point of view, against an industrial, agricultural and merchandise production system that is the opposite of this search for a transition to sustainability”, laments Lúcia.
However, she highlights that a lot has been done by groups of people acting around alternatives, with small experiences of social and economic development that are more integrated with sustainability and, therefore, in tune with the possibilities of making advances in the future. In the context of consumption, Lúcia points out that purchasing products that do not cause environmental degradation and social inequality is a way of pressuring the market to change. “We need to study technological innovation and behaviors that are more compatible with the environmental area and sustainability”, she concludes.