Data are from studies on spatial patterns of infection and mortality from the disease; research also identifies points of greatest risk in the Southeast
A study carried out by four researchers, with Unicamp Everton professor Emanuel Campos de Lima as the main author, focused on analyzing the spatial patterns of infection and mortality by Covid-19 in small areas of Brazil. Using data up to July 2020 and which follows the trend currently observed, it was noticed that the risks of higher mortality are concentrated in the North and coastal regions of the Northeast, a location where there is also a greater risk of infection among younger people. In the Southeast, there are also areas with a higher risk of mortality, although to a lesser extent. The authors also observed that women are at greater risk of infection, however men are more likely to die from the disease.
The research, which also has as authors Ezra Gayawan (Federal University of Technology, Akure); Emerson Augusto Baptista (Shanghai University) and Bernardo Lanza Queiroz (Federal University of Minas Gerais), was published in a scientific article this Friday (12) in the journal PLoS ONE.
Age, sex and pre-existing diseases were three of the components taken into account in the analysis, based on statistical models and dealing with the risk for areas. The age composition, explains the professor of the Department of Demography at the Institute of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH) and researcher at the Population Studies Center of Elza Berquó (Nepo) at Unicamp, Everton Emanuel Campos de Lima, is a key point in the discussion about the pandemic, as the profile of deaths is linked to the distribution of an older population.
However, until the time of data collection, in July 2020, it was noticed that although the South and Southeast had older populations, mortality from Covid-19 was more pronounced in the North and Northeast regions, where there is also a high record history of mortality from cardiovascular diseases. “This indicates that there are numerous other issues that go beyond age, possibly socioeconomic criteria, which leaves the North and Northeast with higher mortality”, he assesses.
Regarding infections, it is noteworthy that infections linked to younger age groups are higher in the North and Northeast. “The infection profile there is more linked to younger people and those in worse socioeconomic conditions. More infected young people, worse access to healthcare and economic issues have caused these places to emerge as major epicenters of mortality in Brazil. This is what is called a perverse combination”, points out the professor. Although the study is based on data from 2020, the professor indicates that the results already pointed to a more serious situation in the North, as in fact occurred, especially in the state of Amazonas.
For Everton, there is a warning about the false information that the pandemic only kills the elderly. Younger people, in addition to being responsible for the contagion rate, also have comorbidities, which makes them also susceptible. "A Young people's lack of concern ends up being a problem, especially when there are motivations from managers who are not yet taking the disease very seriously”.
Women become infected more but die less
The research also shows that the risk of infection is higher for women. Mortality is higher among men. Cultural, social and work factors are highlighted by Everton as possible explanations. “There is possibly a genetic factor, but there are social issues where in the literature women seek medical help more quickly; in the case of the job market: women are more linked to the informal market and this was the market most affected by the pandemic”, she assesses.
What does the spatial pattern indicate?
Knowing the spatial pattern of Covid-19 in the country, explains Everton, is important to point out paths, for example, in health management. “One of the issues is within the entire political issue that we currently see about who should coordinate health issues in the pandemic, whether it is the federal, state or municipal government. If we look at the history, we see that this was more prevalent in municipalities in the most disaggregated areas”, he points out, stressing that as it is an infectious disease, neighboring areas can also be affected due to the common population mobility that exists between municipalities, which may require preventative actions. broader level.
Brazil as the epicenter of the disease
Brazil, as of February 11, had more than 236 deaths from Covid-19, according to the vehicle consortium which carries out a daily survey of the evolution of the epidemic in the country. Six states record an increase in deaths from the disease. The country was the epicenter of the pandemic in 2020 and is currently experiencing a second wave of Covid-19, with a moving average of 1.073 deaths per day, the highest average since July 2020.
For the researcher, Brazil was one of the epicenters of the pandemic and is facing high numbers of cases and deaths due to a series of factors. Lax quarantines, insufficient testing and contact tracing and denialism, encouraged even by authorities, are some of the problems highlighted. “The current president of the Chamber threw a party with 300 people even after a speech highlighting the need to vaccinate everyone. One of the facts that bothered me the most was science being called into question, there was a lot of mysticism surrounding the pandemic and many groups took certain misguided speeches seriously. This succession of mistakes makes us where we are,” he notes.
The discovery of a new strain of the new coronavirus in Manaus raises additional concerns. For the professor, one of the mistakes in the North region was believing that there would be herd immunization, which has proven to be wrong given the cases of reinfection and the mutation of the virus. Therefore, measures to block transmission, use of masks, hand hygiene and social distancing remain recommendations.
Check out the research in full: Spatial pattern of COVID-19 deaths and infections in small areas of Brazil
