In times when the discussion about a possible war with the use of nuclear weapons is back on the agenda, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced this Friday (6) that the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded to the International Campaign for Peace Elimination of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN in its acronym in English). During the award announcement statement, the Committee states that ICAN deserves to receive the Nobel Peace Prize “for its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons, and for its innovative efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons.” Those responsible for the campaign will receive a gold medal, a diploma and a payment of nine million Swedish kronor (around R$3,5 million) at a ceremony to be held in December. Unlike the other awards, which are the responsibility of Swedish organizations, the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by Norway.
ICAN is a campaign run by a series of non-governmental organizations to combat nuclear weapons, encompassing entities from around a hundred countries. Created in 2007 and based in Geneva, Switzerland, the campaign was a major driver of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, approved in June during a United Nations (UN) conference with the support of 122 member countries, including Brazil. However, the five permanent member countries of the UN Security Council, the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom, are not signatories. Also not part of the treaty are Pakistan, North Korea, India and Israel, countries that have developed nuclear weapons, as well as the Netherlands, which has weapons from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization stationed on its territory.
In a statement following the announcement of the Nobel Prize, those responsible for ICAN stated that the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons offers a necessary alternative against the threats posed by weapons of mass destruction. “This award is a tribute to the tireless efforts of many millions of activists and concerned citizens around the world who, since the beginning of the atomic age, have strongly protested nuclear weapons, insisting that they cannot serve a legitimate purpose and must be banned forever face of our land. It is also a tribute to the survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings, and victims of nuclear test explosions around the world, whose stunning testimonies and irresistible advocacy were instrumental in securing this historic agreement,” the campaign statement reads.
Korean peninsula
One of the reasons that encouraged ICAN's nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize was the recent escalation of threats between countries involving the crisis on the Korean peninsula. North Korea recently carried out nuclear and ballistic missile tests in the Sea of Japan region. At the same time, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved Parliament and called new elections. A strengthening of the coalition supporting Shinzo Abe's government could pave the way for a constitutional reform that would aim to authorize the remilitarization of the Self-Defense Forces and authorization for campaigns abroad. This scenario of instability in the region intensifies with the expansion of commercial and military interests of China and Russia, and the insecurity caused by the Donald Trump government in the United States.
Professor Luiz Marques, from the Department of History, from the Institute of Philosophy and Human Sciences (IFCH) at Unicamp, believes that the current situation of instability with countries possessing nuclear weapons is delicate. "According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the Doomsday Clock has been published since 1947. If we look at the Doomsday Clock, we are two and a half minutes from midnight, which is the closest position to a nuclear war , since 1954, when the United States launched the first hydrogen bomb. We live in a more dangerous situation, according to this bulletin, than the invasion of the Bay of Pigs, when we were three minutes away from midnight", assesses Luiz Marques.
However, the rhetoric of governments and the warnings of scientists and non-governmental organizations do not necessarily indicate that there will be a war. "Evidently, it is highly likely that this is a bluff, as in a card game, between the United States and North Korea, as there is no intention of starting a nuclear war. Not only does China draw the line with Korea, but also the Russia, and both countries are not willing to tolerate a nuclear attack in the region", assesses Luiz Marques. “This should not happen in the sense that there is an attempt to seek balance. Nuclear bombs are credited with preventing wars. A state that attacks knows that it can also be destroyed. Therefore, it is very unlikely that this risk zone could turn into a nuclear war.”
Luis Marques understands that there are more serious risks for humanity in environmental degradation. “We are closer to environmental collapse than nuclear war. It is a slower process caused by the increased use of fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases. And also due to the methane gas emitted by cattle and other ruminants, much more powerful than CO² [carbon dioxide]. When people ask me what the most serious risk is for the future of humanity, I answer that it is the environmental crisis and not nuclear war.”
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