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The energy future
Brazilian and foreign experts, gathered for three days at Unicamp,
discuss energy production over the next 20 years


Carlos Tidei

Expanding the supply of energy, promoting development with reduced environmental impact and preserving energy sources, is the biggest challenge facing scientific communities today. The concept of alternative energy, intensely investigated in the last century, is now synonymous with renewable energy.

According to Brazilian and international experts gathered from February 18 to 20 at Unicamp, during the conference “Sustainability in the generation and use of energy in Brazil: the next 20 years”, there is no projection of an energy future for humanity without considering sources such as wind, solar light and heat, biomass and even tidal movement. Inexhaustible or renewable sources, which guarantee environmental preservation, in contrast to the current priority given to oil, coal and gas.

Difficulties come up against the economic viability of these systems in the face of fossil fuel prices. But advances in technology reveal that this path is irreversible, although it is not being followed at the speed desired by many scientists concerned about the increase in global pollution. Greater efficiency in the production and use of traditional energy sources has helped to mitigate environmental impacts.

According to José Goldemberg, Secretary of the Environment of São Paulo, sustainability is the type of development that allows meeting the needs of present generations without compromising the opportunities of future generations. He states that energy systems are complicated precisely because they imply environmental impacts. Studies reveal that fossil fuels do not suffer an imminent depletion crisis, although the sources are far from places of consumption.
Renewable energies are attractive, but still expensive.

Only now is the price of ethanol catching up to that of gasoline. Among the necessary measures are the more efficient use of cars, reducing consumption and gas emissions, the implementation of renewable energy and research into new technologies. “The social problems of developed and developing countries are different. Worldwide, 2 billion people do not have access to electricity and 1,5 billion live on less than a dollar a day”, says Goldemberg.

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The hydraulic potential

The use of hydraulic potential can be improved through management, which is currently carried out by river basins, taking into account the joint administration of society. The opinion is from researcher Marco Aurélio Vasconcelos Freitas, from the National Water Agency (ANA).

Although it seems abundant in the world, the distribution of water is in the following proportion: 97,5% salt water and 2,5% fresh water. Of the fresh water, 76,7% is in glaciers, 22,1% in groundwater and only 1,2% on the surface. This is the reason for water scarcity in many large centers, such as São Paulo. Hydraulic energy in the world represents only 2,3% of the total.

Brazil has almost 20% of the planet's water and 11,1% of the world's hydroelectric production, with a tendency to be the largest producer in the next 10 years, if it maintains annual growth of 4,41%, higher than that of the United States and Canada, largest current producers. The Brazilian hydraulic potential is 260 GW, but only 24% is used. Of the 76% not used, 52% corresponds to the Amazon region.

The sustainability perspective foresees multiple use of water and better use of the areas surrounding the dams, such as the exploration of tourism in Furnas. The biggest constraints are large flood areas, but conflicts can be managed by the advantages of agriculture, irrigation, waterway transport, human supply, leisure and flood and flood borders. In Brazil, 95% of energy is hydroelectric and, in ten years, this will be only 81% — the rest will come from thermoelectric plants and other sources.

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The question of management

Sérgio Valdir Bajay, a professor at Unicamp and active in the Ministry of Mines and Energy, states that the government is trying to do its part, with better management of the system. He explains that the Ten-Year Energy Management Plan makes projections for gas growth in the Brazilian energy matrix. There are difficulties in coordination between the three forms of management – ​​public policy, expansion planning and market regulation –, which were previously managed by different bodies. A new model is underway, stimulating competition and private investment, with the appreciation of regulation between forms.

The ten-year plans are drawn up in annual cycles, with study needs for segments of the sector – gas, coal, biomass, wind energy, etc. – and to provide subsidies to the MME and CNE, but they are not properly equipped for good expansion planning. “Today, a simple instrument is used, the New Wave computational model, which simulates 2.000 synthetic levels of effluent energy, and projects growth scenarios between 5,5% and 6,3% per year”, explains Bajay.

The economic integration between neighboring countries, and the low prices of Brazilian fields, mainly Campos, will provide an increase in the use of natural gas as an energy source, in the proportion of 38 million cubic meters per day in 2001 to 60 million in 2005. Despite being significant, the increase will not be able to meet demand in the decade. Based on current supply, Brazil accounts for 61% of supply and Bolivia for 39%; in 2005, Argentina will enter with 10% and Brazil with 51%, maintaining Bolivia's percentage. The predominant use of gas within three years will be for electricity production.

For Gilberto Januzzi, from Unicamp and MCT, efficiency in the final use of energy increases reliability, reduces the need for investments, reduces environmental impacts, increases consumer access and reduces costs. Consumer behavior during the rationing period led to better use of equipment. In the 70s, the market invested in building abundant and cheap energy. In 1990, a bill mandated high investments in energy conservation, which brought economic benefits. Ongoing investments were accelerated due to the crisis.

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