 | Strategist predicts worse crises
Geraldo Cavagnari Filho warns of the danger that surrounds
modal transport and defends Angra III CARLOS LEMES PEREIRA
ALVARO KASSAB  The new “dark ages”, announced at the beginning of the third millennium and which have been keeping Brazilians up at night, will be a “chip” compared to the new crises that surround the nation in the short term. All “because of the federal government’s lack of strategic vision and honesty”. The prognosis, not encouraging, and packed with a decidedly acidic criticism, comes from Geraldo Lesbat Cavagnari Filho, founder and researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies (NEE) at Unicamp.
To boost his assessment beyond the specific threat of an energy collapse, Cavagnari Filho uses as ammunition his qualifications as a reserve colonel in the Army, with a degree in Higher Military Studies and Strategic Intelligence, in addition to the tools that the Center for Research in Relations gives him. International Studies at USP, where he is a guest professor. “This crisis reveals, first of all, the government’s negligence in the energy field. Just as the government lacked strategic vision, strategic planning, the government also lacked seriousness and even honesty. Given this precedent, it is to be feared that the country will not be free from other crises of such magnitude”, denounces the expert.
For Cavagnari Filho, the most imminent danger surrounds our modal transport system. “If rapid and consistent investments are not made in the recovery, modernization and expansion of the entire infrastructure – including highways, railways and waterways, to ports and airports –, there will be, in the short term, a new crisis”, predicts the strategist. “And I believe it is even more serious”, he reinforces. Wolf Pack
– However, while the rest of the “bad wolf pack” has not yet actually attacked, Cavagnari Filho is trying to contribute to the national effort to strengthen the energy sector, with a view to eliminating – or at least reducing – the possibilities of repetition of the current problems in the following years. “There is an imperative need to adopt a new energy matrix”, he proposes, even going so far as to recognize that “there is no doubt that this is already being done, in a way, strongly stimulated by the current crisis”. Remembering that, until now, more than 90% of the electrical energy consumed throughout the national territory is generated by hydroelectric plants, the researcher from the Center for Strategic Studies warns: “It is a huge risk to depend on a single source for energy production”. “Thus, in the new matrix to be adopted by Brazil, other energy sources should have a significant participation, including the gas that is imported from Bolivia and Argentina”, states the researcher. Controversy
– To compose this mix of options, Cavagnari Filho does not rule out even one of the alternatives that carry the historical weight of the controversy: “I am in favor of the construction of nuclear power plants; they must participate in the new Brazilian energy matrix. It is a source of clean energy”, argues the researcher. “Nuclear safety has been improving a lot, it is now much more reliable than it was twenty years ago and the trend is to improve the reliability standard even further.” The professor bases his thesis on an international trend: “It is known that the United States, for example, already intends to invest in new nuclear plants.”
In the case of Brazil, Cavagnari Filho uses two arguments that he considers strong: “All the equipment necessary for the construction of the Angra III nuclear plant has already been purchased and has been paid for. The country cannot throw away the money spent. Therefore, the construction is justified. Furthermore, Brazilian uranium reserves are quite significant, thus not generating any external dependence on this input.” Incompetence
– Another criticism that the NEE scholar makes towards the federal government is regarding the commercial relationship that the authorities have been maintaining with the electricity concessionaires, mainly with regard to the sector's regulation process. Considering that, currently, the majority of these companies are from the private sector, Cavagnari detects elements of disorganization in the case: “The privatization process of the sector was conducted with incompetence. The threat of a blackout was enough for the government to accelerate the privatization of generators.” More than simply private, many of the new concessionaires in operation are transnational in nature. However, as a specialist in strategy, the professor reassures: “Even if the foreign presence becomes dominant in the Brazilian energy field, there should be no risks to national sovereignty”.
The relief of having the danger of “colonization via switches” reasonably far away, however, is not enough to offset the social costs that, according to the researcher, the population will pay due to the current contingencies in the energy area. “I summarily repeat what other analysts have already said. The impact of this crisis on our economy will be huge. Economic growth this year and in 2002 is expected to be lower than expected. Unemployment will increase and the average income of workers will remain at a standstill”, says Cavagnari Filho. ------------------------------------------ Natural gas as a wildcard JOAO MAURICIO DA ROSA
ALVARO KASSAB  Thermoelectricity produced from natural gas may not be well accepted in the ecologically correct world, as it is considered dirty energy that emits pollutants that are harmful to the ozone layer and accelerates the production of the so-called greenhouse effect. But, in the absence of other energy sources, why not use it with the necessary precautions?
Denis Schiozer (photo on the side), coordinator of Cepetro (Petroleum Studies Center) at Unicamp, states that natural gas has great potential for growth in Brazil and that it can be part of the government strategy to combat energy shortages. “It is necessary to diversify the energy matrix to reduce the country’s dependence on hydroelectric plants. Between 10% and 12% of the energy consumed in several countries is obtained from natural gas. In Brazil, this percentage is still between 2% and 3%”, explains Schiozer, from the first master's class in Petroleum Engineering, a course opened by Unicamp in 1988 at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering.
Schiozer is a specialist in the exploration and production of oil reserves, an area of research that seeks to find fuel in Brazilian sedimentary basins and produce oil and gas in the best possible way, integrating geosciences, engineering and economics.
Currently, according to him, Petrobrás explores gas reserves, mainly in Rio de Janeiro, Bahia and Bolivia. In Brazil, as a fuel, gas is already used in vehicles such as taxis and buses, but in general the use is small compared to its potential. The professor is also aware of the criticisms of fuel as a source of electricity. “It is not as clean as hydroelectric plants, nor as safe, but with the government acting rigidly as a regulator, it could be the alternative to energy shortages,” he argues. This government control must be the most severe, according to the professor, as energy exploration, a strategic sector for any country, will have a large presence of foreign companies. “This could be good for the government, as these companies are investing heavily in exploration and production, something that Petrobrás alone was unable to do. Brazil earns taxes and royalties from products, but we need to be careful with the environment and with long-term planning,” he says. Experts
– The area of oil and energy is very specialized and, with the new regulatory role of the State, the country needs qualified professionals to work in the area and guarantee long-term success. Until very recently, Brazil had few experts outside of Petrobrás who could speak on an equal footing with the large multinational corporations that are entering the national energy market. Unicamp was one of the pioneers in the area with the Petroleum Engineering course.
Now, the professor believes it is important for the Brazilian government to reinforce the idea of an alliance with universities and research centers to preserve the country's interest in a strategic area such as oil. “The foreign company will do what is best for it and oil exploration and production activities involve the environment, safety and health as it is a strategic area. Therefore, the country needs to have strong research centers and agencies to outline long-term policies. In the energy crisis, this was not done and we must learn more from this problem”, he warns.
|  |
