OThe Institutes of Mathematics and Biology at Unicamp, Unisinos and Embrapa Meio Ambiente have been able to put into practice for months the “Extracontinental Avian Influenza Detection System”, which targets the entry of the H5N1 virus – causing the calamitous situation in Asia and Europe – and other less lethal viruses via the Antarctic route, brought by migratory birds. In order to sensitize the federal government to give the green light for the start of operations, Unicamp will host an international forum on the 16th, with invitations to the ministries of Health, Agriculture, Environment and the CNPq, state departments and bodies of South region and representatives of the poultry production sector, as well as authorities from Argentina, Chile and Uruguay, countries equally interested in containing avian influenza.

Technicians present project to authorities on the 16th

“Rector José Tadeu Jorge and I presented the emergency plan to the Minister of Agriculture Luís Carlos Guedes Pinto, as a complement to the prevention work that has been carried out nationally by the government. It was understood that the government would support the project”, informs João Frederico Meyer, director of the Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Scientific Computing (Imecc) at Unicamp. Meyer and the dean were also at the Navy, meeting with commander Geraldo Gondim Juaçaba Filho, of the Brazilian Antarctic Project (Proantar) and on whom the inclusion of a group of researchers at the Brazilian base on the frozen continent depends. This team, also composed of ornithologists from Unisinos (Universidade Vale do Rio dos Sinos, RS) will collect samples of various bird species for virological analysis.

Since the March technical meeting at Unicamp, with mathematicians, biologists, veterinarians and ornithologists – and detailed by Jornal da Unicamp in issue 317 –, the avian influenza virus detection program has undergone improvements. But João Meyer recalls the essential points of the plan, starting with collecting samples of migratory bird species that arrive in Brazil via the Antarctic route. “This material will be inactivated, in order to render a possible virus inert, before transport for analysis in Campinas. This analysis should be carried out by Lanagro [National Agricultural Laboratory], a government body, and will serve to identify the existence or not of the H5N1 virus and others such as Newcastle”, says the professor.

Unisinos researchers, led by Professor Martin Sander, have already implanted rings or microchips in around 20 thousand birds on the Antarctic continent, and species ringed by them have already been found on almost the entire Brazilian coast. “If there is any virus in the samples, ornithologists will know the species and the spots it frequents in our territory. For example: if at the beginning of the year the bird makes its first landing on the coast of Rio Grande do Sul, it can be predicted that in May it will be on the coast of Espírito Santo. The mathematical model allows us to predict where virus prevention and containment tasks should be centralized. Thus, the government will be able to establish contingency strategies, actions or policies, such as vaccinating all birds within a given radius”, explains João Meyer.

Historic - Master in ecology and manager of this detection system designed for Brazil, Joel Meyer, son of the Imecc director, remembers that the H5N1 virus appeared and started causing problems in 2003, in China, and has already spread throughout much of Asia, almost all European countries and even reached some African countries. “For some time, authorities did not take the role of migratory birds in spreading the virus very seriously. Until the FAO and the OIE (World Organization for Animal Health), this year, promoted a convention with researchers from all over the world, concluding that these birds really represent the main vector of macrodispersion of the H5N1 virus”, he informs. Other ways of transmitting the virus would be the transport of live birds – as in wild animal smuggling – and their presence in travelers' luggage. “But, for these cases, biological material detectors already exist at airports and borders. It’s difficult to control the movement of migratory birds, there are no borders for them,” he adds.

The FAO map, according to Joel Meyer, clearly shows that migratory birds cover practically the entire globe, in other words, that all countries are at risk of receiving avian influenza. “It turns out this map is a bit Eurocentric. It does not take into account a very important route, formed by more than 60 species of birds with a home range around Antarctica, which in turn connects the continents of Oceania, Africa and South America. Some species have a home range that it reaches Europe and Asia, and returns to reproduce on sub-Antarctic islands”, he explains. Between August and November, species arrive on some of these islands close to South America from different parts of the world, and many then fly to Brazil. “By tracing this new route around Antarctica, which connects to other migratory bird routes, we show that the virus can arrive not only from the North, but also from the South.”

Through Alaska – Professor João Frederico Meyer highlights that Antarctica presents conditions that are especially favorable to the transmission of the virus, starting with high population densities. Colonies reach thousands of individuals literally squeezed into small sub-Antarctic islands. “Another very important condition is temperature. At 25 degrees, the virus survives for two to four days in a bird's feces, while at up to 4 degrees, the virus remains infectious for 30 days. The risk is much greater,” he warns.

It is no coincidence that the United States, which remains on alert against H5N1, concentrates sample collection in Alaska – there are more than 14 thousand virological tests, according to the bird monitoring database, while in other American states they do not exceed the hundreds. “Alaska is a mirror of Antarctica in terms of temperature and shelter for species from other continents. The USA has defined this as the main risk of the virus entering North America and has already put together its defense plan”, says Joel Meyer. In fact, last March, five months after the presentation of the Brazilian detection program to the Ministry of Agriculture, the USA announced theirs, practically identical in relation to the database and mathematical model – Brazil has modeling for the case of a pandemic in humans, but not for birds.

Joel Meyer also highlights the importance of carrying out genetic sequencing of the H5N1 virus and disseminating this information, a measure advocated in an article in the journal Nature written by 70 researchers, including six Nobel laureates. “Sequencing allows us to perceive, as in a game of seven errors, the small differences and similarities between viruses found in other parts of the world. Viruses present mutations, including in terms of their ability to infect. This would greatly facilitate the fight against avian influenza, as it would allow us to know the origin and characteristics of the virus strain, in addition to supporting the development of an effective vaccine”, he explains.

Newcastle – Now in July, the Ministry of Agriculture announced the outbreak of an avian disease similar to influenza (but less lethal), caused by Newcastle. Even without proof, the Ministry believes that the virus arrived through migratory birds. In fact, the outbreak occurred in May, precisely the month in which species arrived from the South, and Newcastle has already been detected in the Antarctic environment. “This shows that this is a viable route for disease transmission. The problem was the surprise effect, as the government was not ready to deal with the situation and it took two months to confirm the diagnosis. More than 40 countries have raised trade barriers against chicken, with a loss of R$2,6 million for producers in Rio Grande do Sul”, observes the researcher.

In Professor João Meyer's opinion, if the detection program suggested to the government had been in practice, it could have provided important information for predicting, preventing and combating Newcastle, as well as other viruses. In the past, Australia, Chile and South Africa have already suffered from outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains of road-borne diseases, while Argentina has identified strains of influenza in migratory birds from Antarctica. “Brazil is the largest chicken exporter in the world and the poultry industry accounts for 1,5% of GDP. More than any other country, it is essential for Brazil to be prepared to face the virus efficiently. Producers are aware of the importance of a permanent monitoring program. The first idea of ​​the project is to reassure the population and the production chain. We would like to go to Antarctica and announce that we found nothing. But this can only be done through efficient monitoring”, concludes the director of Imecc.